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AKE:EURONEXT PARISArkema SA Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-09 - not real-time

$0.94

Latest Price

8/10Risk

Risk Level: High

Executive Summary

Akebia Therapeutics (AKE) is trading well below its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, confirming a bearish price trend. RSI signals oversold conditions while the MACD shows a marginal bullish histogram, suggesting limited short‑term upside. Recent earnings disclosed a first‑quarter loss and a miss on EPS expectations, driving a sharp share‑price decline and heightened investor skepticism. Volume is decreasing, and the stock exhibits extremely high 30‑day volatility, reinforcing the near‑term risk profile. However, the discounted cash‑flow model values the company at more than three dollars, implying a substantial upside potential relative to the current sub‑one‑dollar price. The pipeline, especially the growth in Vafseo revenues and ongoing Phase 2 trials, offers a longer‑term growth narrative that could re‑anchor valuation if execution improves.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Cautious
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Price below key moving averages
  • Recent earnings miss and widening loss
  • Elevated volatility and decreasing volume

Medium Term

1–3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • DCF suggests significant upside
  • Growth in Vafseo sales offsetting Auryxia decline
  • Pipeline progress may improve earnings trajectory

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Undervaluation relative to fair value
  • Strategic collaborations and expanding product portfolio
  • Long‑term demand for kidney‑disease therapeutics

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-6.60%
Profit Margin-8.83%
P/E Ratio-4.9
ROE-78.95%
ROA2.02%
Debt/Equity721.55
P/B Ratio9.2
Op. Cash Flow$60.4M
Free Cash Flow$65.8M
Industry P/E27.8

Technical Analysis

TrendBearish
RSI33.4
Support$0.88
Resistance$1.23
MA 20$1.03
MA 50$1.25
MA 200$1.79
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.64

Valuation

Fair Value$3.07
Target Price$4.20
Upside/Downside348.91%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth

Risk Assessment

Beta1.33
Volatility95.21%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.