AKE:EURONEXT PARISArkema SA Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-09 - not real-time
$0.94
Latest Price
8/10Risk
Risk Level: High
Executive Summary
Akebia Therapeutics (AKE) is trading well below its 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, confirming a bearish price trend. RSI signals oversold conditions while the MACD shows a marginal bullish histogram, suggesting limited short‑term upside. Recent earnings disclosed a first‑quarter loss and a miss on EPS expectations, driving a sharp share‑price decline and heightened investor skepticism. Volume is decreasing, and the stock exhibits extremely high 30‑day volatility, reinforcing the near‑term risk profile. However, the discounted cash‑flow model values the company at more than three dollars, implying a substantial upside potential relative to the current sub‑one‑dollar price. The pipeline, especially the growth in Vafseo revenues and ongoing Phase 2 trials, offers a longer‑term growth narrative that could re‑anchor valuation if execution improves.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearCautious
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Price below key moving averages
- Recent earnings miss and widening loss
- Elevated volatility and decreasing volume
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- DCF suggests significant upside
- Growth in Vafseo sales offsetting Auryxia decline
- Pipeline progress may improve earnings trajectory
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Undervaluation relative to fair value
- Strategic collaborations and expanding product portfolio
- Long‑term demand for kidney‑disease therapeutics
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-6.60%
Profit Margin-8.83%
P/E Ratio-4.9
ROE-78.95%
ROA2.02%
Debt/Equity721.55
P/B Ratio9.2
Op. Cash Flow$60.4M
Free Cash Flow$65.8M
Industry P/E27.8
Technical Analysis
TrendBearish
RSI33.4
Support$0.88
Resistance$1.23
MA 20$1.03
MA 50$1.25
MA 200$1.79
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index87.64
Valuation
Fair Value$3.07
Target Price$4.20
Upside/Downside348.91%
GradeUndervalued
TypeGrowth
Risk Assessment
Beta1.33
Volatility95.21%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskHigh
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.